1. Macroeconomic Backdrop
Kukura kwehupfumi — kunyanya muzvivakwa, zvivakwa, uye kugadzira — kunotsanangura kudiwa kwesimbi. GDP yakatsiga (inotsigirwa nekushandiswa kwezvivakwa) inochengetedza kushandiswa, nepo nzvimbo ine husimbe yezvivakwa kana kuderera kwepasirese kunoderedza simba remitengo.
2. Supply-Demand Dynamics
Supply: Mashandiro echigayo (kuputika/kushandiswa kwechoto chemagetsi) uye kuchekwa kwekugadzira (semuenzaniso, crude steel curbs) zvinokanganisa chiyero chemusika. Yakaderera mazinga (semuenzaniso, 30-40% gore-pa-gore inoderera muzvitoro rebar) inowedzera kushanduka kwemutengo.
Zvinodiwa: Kudonha kwemwaka (mafungu ekupisa, monsoons) kunoderedza basa rekuvaka, asi kukurudzira kwemitemo (semuenzaniso, kurerutsa midziyo) kunogona kukonzera kudzoreredza kwenguva pfupi. Simba rekutengesa kunze (semuenzaniso, kuwedzera kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika muH1 2025) kunobvisa kuwandisa kwemba asi kunotarisana nenjodzi dzekutengesa.
3. Mutengo Pass-Kuburikidza
Raw materials (iron ore, coking coal) inotonga mari yechigayo. Kudzokororwa kwemarasha ekubikisa (pakati pekurasikirwa kwemugodhi uye nzira dzekuchengetedza) kana kudzoreredzwa kwesimbi kunotsigira mitengo yesimbi, nepo mbishi inodonha (semuenzaniso, 57% inonyura mukubikira marasha muH1 2025) inodzika pasi.
4. Kupindira kwePolisi
Mitemo inodzora kugovera (semuenzaniso, kudzora kuburitsa, kurambidzwa kunze kwenyika) uye kudiwa (semuenzaniso, kukwidziridzwa kwebhondi, kuzorora kwezvivakwa). Kuchinja-chinja kwemitemo kamwe kamwe—kuchikurudzira kana kudzora—kunokonzera kushanduka.
5. Global and Market Sentiments
Kutengeserana nedzimwe nyika kuyerera (semuenzaniso, njodzi dzinodzivirira kurasa) uye kutenderera kwezvinhu (dollar-denominated iron ore) inobatanidza mitengo yepamba nemisika yepasi rose. Futures market positioning uye "kutarisira gaps" (policy vs. real) kunowedzera kushanduka kwemitengo.
6. Mwaka uye Natural Ngozi
Mamiriro ekunze akanyanya (kupisa, madutu) anovhiringa kuvaka, nepo mabhodhoro ekugadzirisa zvinhu achikonzeresa kusawirirana kwezvinodiwa zvedunhu, zvichiwedzera kushanduka kwemutengo kwenguva pfupi.
Nguva yekutumira: Jul-01-2025
